Look who added 2.3 million iPhones to their Apple models

Analysts were a lot less bullish about unit sales three months ago.

In July I asked analysts how many iPhones they expected Apple to sell in the September quarter. I asked again this week and a got a bigger answer. 5.25% bigger.

  • July estimate: 43 million
  • Today’s estimate: 45.3 million

Here’s how that 2.3 million iPhone windfall was spread out among the brokerage firms for which I have before and after estimates:


Not seeing the interactive graphic? Try the website.

Below: The individual analysts’ unit sales estimates. We’ll find out who was closest to the mark when Apple reports its fiscal Q4 earnings. Tune in Tuesday Oct. 25 after the markets close.

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CORRECTION: An earlier version of this story made a classic million-billion error. My first in months.

21 Comments

  1. Richard Overstreet said:

    Hi Philip… 2.3 billion?

    0
    October 22, 2016
      • Gianfranco Pedron said:

        🙁 … I was really looking forward to the market reaction come Monday morning.

        0
        October 22, 2016
        • Richard Overstreet said:

          No kidding, probably would of skyrocketed to 15x trailing earnings ;-/

          0
          October 22, 2016
  2. George Providaked said:

    Interesting considering the widely praised SAMSUNG Note 7 on the market – this is an interesting update. The real impact of SAMSUNG, prob won’t be until Jan-Mar 2017, given Apple fall supply constrained iPhone 7 plus. My order last week has an estimated delivery date of early December.

    If the Chinese App Store boom continues implying high demand for Apple iPhones, then Apple will continue to be supply limited as Chinese New Year arrives.

    Again masking any benefits of SAMSUNG diminished rep and older product line. This leads me to think Google PIXEL may be at a perfect storm of Apple being supply constrained and SAMSUNG much weaker. Google may actually have a successful hardware launch after so many past failures.

    2
    October 22, 2016
    • Fred Stein said:

      Good points. The PIXEL story is just starting. They launched only with Verizon, indicating they’re supply constrained – just my guess. Continuing that thread, PIXEL will struggle to supply the phones to fill the Samsung void. Other Android makers will jump in as well, especially overseas. PIXEL may take some of Apple’s business…. in the future. Let’s compare total PIXELs to total iPhones sold about one year from today.

      1
      October 22, 2016
    • David Emery said:

      Hi, George!

      If you’re right, does Google know enough about supply chain management to produce phones to meet that demand? I suspect that’s a much harder problem than most at Google understand.

      3
      October 22, 2016
    • Robert Paul Leitao said:

      Figuratively speaking, the Note 7 disaster will add only a few drops to the cascading waterfall of iPhone 7 demand. The iPhone 7’s success or the success of any future iPhone handset series will be determined less by the products delivered by other handset makers and more by Apple’s ability to extend and expand the company’s base of device owners and participation in the company’s eco-system of devices, apps, content and services.

      The fallout from the Note 7 disaster is much more apt to reshuffle demand within the Android sphere than it will deliver millions of new device customers to Apple. Outside of the iPhone, the demand for high-end smartphones is small and represents only a small fraction of Android-based smartphone sales.

      In my view, the release of the Pixel is more an effort by Alphabet to better define its vision of the Android experience primarily for Google services purists than it is a significant competitor to Samsung or even Apple.

      If Apple has a competitor it’s Alphabet not Samsung. It’s a competition to create the ideal digital lifestyle experience for users more than it is a competition for device unit sales. If there’s a lesson to be learned from the Note 7 disaster, the lesson is Android device makers need to focus more on quality and usability than be concerned with Apple’s release dates for new iPhone handsets.

      2
      October 22, 2016
  3. Fred Stein said:

    Very encouraging. I’d love to hear Moskowitz explain his thinking.

    0
    October 22, 2016
  4. Michael Gabrys said:

    Philip-

    For clarity, I recommend you add the word ‘revenue’ to the paragraph above your second table. There are a lot of components of the apple model that are talked about. M

    Below: The individual analysts’ [revenue] estimates. We’ll find out who was closest to the mark when Apple reports its fiscal Q4 earnings. Tune in Tuesday Oct. 25 after the markets close.

    0
    October 22, 2016
  5. Robert Paul Leitao said:

    More than any other factor, reported September quarter iPhone unit sales will be determined by supply. It’s possible more iPhones were sold through to consumers in the quarter than will be reported as sold because the company may not have been able to match the drawn down of channel supply of iPhone 6 series handsets with shipments of new iPhone 7 handsets into the global channel.

    In general, it appears Wall Street analysts have been at least modestly surprised by the level of consumer interest in Apple’s newest iPhones and the very heavy promotional activity in support of the iPhone 7 from all of the domestic carriers.

    However, the high level of interest and consequential demand will be reflected more in December quarter results than the unit sales number for the September quarter that will be announced next week.

    1
    October 22, 2016
  6. Milenko Tanasijevic said:

    One of the differentiators / iingredients in Pixel’s ” magic sauce” might well be their Assistant’ apparent superiority over Siri

    0
    October 22, 2016
  7. Milenko Tanasijevic said:

    Hope Apple is able to leverage their new AI acquisitions !

    0
    October 22, 2016

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